"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those rather than parlays. Some of you may not understand how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, along with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it sounds like. Without a doubt Team A and when it wins then you place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a type of "if" bet in which you bet on the initial team, and if it wins you bet double on the second team. With a true "if" bet, rather than betting double on the second team, you bet the same amount on the second team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you need to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can be made on two games kicking off concurrently. The bookmaker will wait until the first game is over. If the initial game wins, he will put the same amount on the next game even though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is in fact two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the second bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the next bet cannot be cancelled, even if the second game has not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you should have action on the next game. For that reason, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. Once the two games without a doubt overlap in time, however, the only method to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the second game bet isn't an issue. It should be noted, that when the two games start at different times, most books will not allow you to fill in the second game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.
You can create an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I would like to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the second team. No matter whether the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 when you lose on the initial team. If the first team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. In that case, if the next team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" will be $110, and the utmost win will be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, rather than just $10 of vig, each and every time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a great deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. If you split however the loser is the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This kind of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you wish to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the total amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. Both "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also be the same as in the event that you played a single "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would go onto Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You would lose $55 on each of the bets for a total maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Rather than losing $110 once the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 when the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It works out in this manner. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the next combination of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the first "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet offers you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the next combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller loss of $60 instead of $110 when the first team loses without decrease in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it has the advantage of making the risk more predictable, and preventing the worry concerning which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations give you a headache, skip them and simply write down the rules. I'll summarize the rules in an easy to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation it doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting using one should not be made dependent on whether or not you win another. Alternatively, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the fact that he could be not betting the next game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Understand that the next time someone tells you that the best way to win would be to bet fewer games. A good winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by successful with a positive expectation in mere two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of which you have no other choice is if you are the best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down that aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux and that means you left it in the car, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account with no credit line, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap with time, you grab your trusty cell 5 minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your face, search for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Of course you could bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is an excellent substitute for the parlay when you are winner.
For link vào 888b , the best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there is a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the benefit of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets which have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the fact that we make the next bet only IF among the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig no matter how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when one of our combinations comes in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or over will come in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" includes a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favourite covers the high spread, it really is much more likely that the game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite does not cover the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will under the total. As we have already seen, when you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The specific possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines on the side and total are one to the other, but the fact that they are co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet compared to the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only need to win one from the two. Each of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we need is a 72% probability that when, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the total 53 � at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point from a win. A BC cover will result in an over 72% of the time isn't an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
In comparison with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the results split for a complete increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."