The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
SV66 media carry an increased house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a more impressive advantage over you when you play them. That, alone, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often lead to betting parlays. People think they are risking less with parlays, but they aren't. They believe they are able to win more with parlays, however they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger probability of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less probability of collecting.
A parlay is not a single bet. It really is two bets -- a one-unit bet using one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and one team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Just do it, make a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, just how many of you'll still make the bet?
A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the second team, or nothing on that same team, depending upon if the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting that doesn't ought to be there. The skilled handicapper is definitely wanting to make smart investments. He tries to get rid of the result of luck to the best extent possible in order to make his results as predictable as possible.
Much like every rule, however, there are exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs once the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for tens of thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a new player to consistently parlay the initial half with the overall game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the initial half with the over in the game, and the under in the first half with under in the game. Both parlays were manufactured in the same game. Each time the player won he would win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of them won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on another parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he'd lose $200.
At first glance, this were a great chance of the book. The normal coin-flip odds of winning one parlay out of your two are 50-50. So far as the bookie was concerned the bettor should be winning $160 half the time, and losing $200 half enough time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead a lot more than $20,000 after six months, and the book begun to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The issue for the bookmaker was that the two halves of each parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the initial half, the bettor was almost never in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The overall game total was 53 and the initial half total was 27. At the end of the first half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The first half of one of the parlays, the "over" in the initial half was successful. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be considered a 50-50 possibility of winning the "over" for the overall game. Obviously the chances of winning the "over" in the overall game were not 50-50 but much better than 99% in favor of the "over." The ball player only needed to win the first half of the parlay to be virtually assured he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to use this, be aware that most off-shore books are far too smart to enable you to parlay first half to game. If they do let you do this, start fretting about collecting because that book will be taken to the cleaners.
There are, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may still be made at many books. One type of co-dependent parlay is the parlay of the side and total in exactly the same game.
Any game where the total is significantly less than double the spread can provide you an edge in parlaying side to total in exactly the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how exactly to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and increase your win with hardly any increase in risk. This type of bet, however, needed that you have an opinion privately or the total. Parlaying is another solution to boost your potential win on these games, or even to create a potential win if you have no opinion.
There are two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a complete 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you believe that Virginia covers the 25 points, they must hold Duke to no more than 11 points or the game will go over the total. The much more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia covers 25 points, the more likely it becomes that the game will review 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the more likely the game will review. If you like Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will not be shut out, in that case your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it really is less likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. Subsequently, the probability a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is higher than the normal 25%.
For those who have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favourite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has already won with the underdog for an absolute two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total is to the spread privately, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays is not as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but there is a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to help make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will help you to parlay the medial side to the full total in exactly the same game, because increasingly more are realizing these bets are sometimes co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets that you can consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, it is possible to replace the parlay bet having an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.